There is no denying that successfully betting on the NFL is an extremely difficult endeavor. Even professional bettors hit losing streaks and struggle to come out ahead. With razor-thin margins and efficient markets, NFL public betting presents major challenges. Here are some of the key reasons why profiting from NFL wagering is so tough:
- Small edges and tight lines. Modern NFL betting lines are incredibly sharp with very small margins between the two sides. A typical NFL point spread is within 3 points and attempting to beat the closing line is tough for even elite bettors. Even edges of less than 1 point can be hard to overcome with vigorish on losing bets.
- Efficient market. The popularity of the NFL makes it an extremely efficient betting market. Any information from injuries to weather is quickly incorporated into the lines by oddsmakers. There are also millions of bettors attacking lines looking for any perceived edge. This makes finding and keeping an edge very difficult.
- Unpredictable outcomes. The dynamics of football make NFL games prone to unpredictability. Everything from turnovers, special teams, penalties, and lucky bounces can swiftly swing the results. Even when you handicap games correctly, fluky outcomes are common and can destroy an on-paper edge.
- Numerous factors. Betting NFL games requires analyzing countless factors like injuries, weather, coaching, line play, situational spots, and statistical trends. Keeping track of all the shifting variables across 32 teams when making NFL picks is an extremely demanding task. It’s tough getting a strong read on every matchup.
- Week-to-week variance. NFL teams are prone to major swings in performance from week to week. A team can look great one game and terrible the next. This makes power ratings and predictive metrics less reliable than in other sports. Past performance often fails to indicate future results.
- Small sample size. With just 16 regular season games, there is a tiny sample size in NFL betting compared to baseball or basketball. Luck plays a bigger role in football and it’s hard to get an accurate assessment of teams until very late in the year. Early season lines require many assumptions.
- Injuries. Injuries are more impactful in football than other sports due to limited roster size and different positions. Losing a star QB or lineman can transform a team. Keeping up with injury reports and accounting for absences is a huge undertaking.
- Emotional letdowns. Motivational factors play a big part in NFL performance, with flat or emotionally charged spots influencing outcomes. It’s difficult handicapping which teams will show up in these letdown or statement spots.
- Bad beats. With tight lines and the prevalence of backdoor covers, the NFL produces tons of excruciating bad beats. Even if you make the right call on a game, a meaningless late touchdown can still cause you to lose your bet. This emotional toll can negatively impact bankroll management.
- Primetime volatility. For some reason, NFL teams tend to play tighter games under the bright lights of primetime. These divisional rivalry matchups see familiar opponents play closer games than expected. Primetime games are tough to handicap.
- Personnel decisions. Roster decisions like promoting practice squad players, signings, trades, and starters sitting out can significantly alter a team’s performance. Keeping up with the latest depth chart and personnel moves for every team is extremely challenging.
- Coaching decisions. Playcalling, in-game strategy, and clock management are huge factors in the NFL and some coaches are simply better than others. Figuring out which coaches to trust and when to fade them is easier said than done.
In summary, the massive amounts of shifting information, tiny margins, and fluky outcomes make NFL betting a grind. Beating the closing line is an accomplishment. While it’s possible to beat the NFL odds, it requires extensive work, dedication, and resilience. Doing it long-term and profitably is something only a small percentage of professional bettors achieve.